Is there really such a thing as an uncommitted voter?
Issue #518 The Choice February 29, 2024
All eyes were on Michigan on Tuesday evening to see what effect the so-called “uncommitted” movement was going to have on the Democratic primary; was President Joe Biden going to get the message from the Arab and Muslim community that they are serious about withholding their support if he doesn’t listen to them and push for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza in the war between Israel and Hamas?
First, let me just say this; come November in this year’s General Election, there will be no such thing as uncommitted. There will be no standing on the sidelines. When the General Election comes in November, here’s how it will go down on the Democratic side of the political equation: If you vote for Biden then you vote for Biden. If you vote for Trump then you vote for Trump. If you vote for any of the alternative candidates, you have voted for Trump. If you vote uncommitted, you have voted for Trump. And if you stay at home and don’t vote at all, then you voted for Trump.
Just so you know.
And now back to Tuesday’s primary; the uncommitted folks garnered 13.3% of the vote which is OK, but not as smashingly successful as some are trying to make it seem. True, it surpasses the 10% mark set as their goal, but that was a somewhat low bar. It was smart politically and strategically to set the bar low because that allowed them to claim victory and point to how they exceeded expectations once the numbers passed the mark. But those low expectations won’t necessarily have the impact they’d like to think.
Briefly, here’s why Biden probably isn’t panicking based on these results: that 13.3% added up to about 100,960 votes, according to the Associated Press. Not an itty bitty number, but it’s worth noting that Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020.
Also, noticeably fewer voters turn out in primaries than in the General Election. By November the Israeli/Hamas situation isn’t likely to be at the forefront of most voters’ minds, even if the situation hasn’t been resolved by then - which it may well be.
Domestic issues almost always trump foreign policy with most voters unless you’re talking about a war situation like Vietnam where American lives are being lost for a visibly unjustifiable cause. And President Biden has the next few months to trumpet the literal ton of domestic wins he has been racking up since his election - despite the Republican madness.
Also, keep in mind that President Obama absorbed a hit of 11 percent uncommitted voters in the Michigan Primary Election of 2012. Nevertheless, he won the Michigan Primary with more than 89 percent of the vote and went on to win Michigan and beat Michigan native Mitt Romney in the General Election 53% - 46% on his way to a second term.
That was over a decade ago and Michigan is more “blue” now than it was then. Plus, thanks to Biden’s strong support of unions during the UAW strike, there’s a strong likelihood that they will turn out for him more actively than they did even for Obama.
None of this is to say that the uncommitted movement did not get the Biden team’s attention because it did. But it didn’t just now get their attention. They have been paying attention for a while, believe it or not.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is Biden’s Michigan campaign chair and she has had the unenviable task of essentially being the go-between trying to smooth things out and relay messages between the Biden White House and the Arab and Muslim community in Dearborn. Gov. Whitmer knows that not only is Dearborn angry, but that they have a very legitimate reason for being angry because for them this is highly personal.
Many Dearborn residents have family members and friends who have either been killed or are suffering tremendously in Gaza. You can’t just expect somebody to “get past that” or to “consider the greater good” when you’re talking about family members being murdered.
But if Trump is elected, the cold truth is that it honestly can get worse. At least Biden is listening, even if not as intently as the pro-Palestinian group wishes that he would.
Trump and Israel Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu (who is also seeking to stay in office to stay out of prison) are tight, and Netanyahu has never wanted anything but the worst for the Palestinians. Biden is pushing for a two-state solution, whereas Netanyahu literally aligned himself with Hamas in the past just to make sure no progress was made toward any such solution.
Those who are now protesting against Biden and calling him “Genocide Joe” for not pushing for a cease-fire are doing so because they are currently allowed to protest. It is their right as American citizens.
If Trump is re-elected, his end goal is to make sure that anyone who protests against him meets the same fate as the opponents of Vladimir Putin. He doesn’t just want to be a dictator, he wants to be a dictator with the power to brutalize and murder his enemies. What the hell do you think he means when he tells his supporters, “I am your retribution?” Why do you think he loves Putin so much?
Allowing Trump to win just to make a point will not be a temporary inconvenience that will easily be rectified four years later.
Allowing Trump to win will likely destroy any chance of anyone opposed to Trump ever making an anti-Trump point ever again. I just hope we don’t have to actually live through that dystopian reality of watching our democracy crumble into dust to finally believe it.
I have never used a blow torch to burn the skin off my hand, but I still believe fire is hot. Believe the evidence.
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