I'll say it again; something is wrong with those polls

Issue #734 The Choice, Thursday, September 26, 2024

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I’m sorry, but I just keep coming back to this because it bugs me; although there are some encouraging reports that Kamala Harris is beginning to widen her lead against Trump in national polls, other polls suggest that in the swing states where she needs to win (thanks/no thanks to the Electoral College), the race is still neck-and-neck, or margin of error at best.

I respect Rachel Maddow tremendously, and I don’t necessarily feel comfortable saying flat out that there’s something wrong with this polling because, hey, what do I know? I’m not a professional pollster by any means, and I definitely don’t have the impact, influence, or credentials of someone like Maddow. I’m just a regular journalist trying to figure this all out. And yet…

There just has to be something wrong with this polling. Because, OK, let’s just do something completely unscientific and take a look at who is endorsing Kamala Harris besides Taylor Swift. Oh, and the more than 700 current and former national security officials. Yeah, them too. Advance warning; I may not be able to fit all of the endorsements into a single column, so I’ll do the best I can. But just scrolling through that list of celebrities, unions, political organizations, civil rights organizations, and on and on and on, it’s difficult to see how this snowball will melt before it demolishes the target at the bottom of the mountain. And this doesn’t even include  the ever expanding list of high level Republicans – including former Trump team folk – who are tossing logs and gasoline on the fire as they nail Trump to the stake.

But  before going any further and scrolling through this massive list of endorsements (courtesy of Wikipedia) , because I already know your eyes are likely to glaze over at some point (and this isn’t even all the names or organizations) here’s something else to think about; So you remember that President Biden beat Trump in 2020, right? And that the margin of victory wasn’t exactly close (306-232 in the Electoral College with an unprecedented 66% of adult voters casting a ballot)?

 Right. So now, four years later, Trump is noticeably weaker and more deranged, his base has probably shrunk – it damned sure hasn’t grown - and the Biden/Harris supporters of four years ago are not only still alive and kicking, but now they are significantly more energized, growing in number by the day, and raising cash by the barrel full.

So unless the Trump team’s bag of dirty tricks is indescribably bigger than it was four years ago and run by ridiculously more competent dirty tricks operatives, I just don’t see the math on how Trump wins in  November, nor do I see how it tracks that this race is supposed to be so breathlessly close.

Unless it’s not. If you haven’t heard of Alan Lichtman, you owe it to yourself to at least hear him out. The man has correctly predicted presidential races for the last 40 years in every race but one, Bush v. Gore, which was decided in a very controversial decision by the Supreme Court in 2000. He predicts that not only will Kamala Harris win in November, but she will win by a sizable margin. So, at least I’m not the only Pollyanna in the room.

But about those endorsements:

·        Four out of six living U.S. presidents: Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton

·        Former Vice President Dick Cheney (??!!?!)

·         46 of the 51 incumbent members of the Senate Democratic Caucus

·        All 23 incumbent Democratic state governors, as well as 3 of 4 Democratic territorial governors

·        George Brandis, Australian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom

·        Yves-Francois Blanchet, leader of the Bloc Quebecois in Canada

·        College Democrats of America

·        Democratic Attorneys General Association

·        Democratic Governors Association

·        Democrats Abroad

·        High School Democrats of America

·        National Conference of Democratic Mayors

·        National Federation of Democratic Women

·        Stonewall Democrats

·        Young Democrats of America

·        AAPI Victory Fund^]

·         Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club

·        Alpha PAC

·        Asian American Action Fund

·        Black Economic Alliance

·        Black Voters Matter

·        Black Women Organized for Political Action PAC

  Center for Black Equity Political Action Fund

  Color of Change PAC

  Equality California

  Equality Florida Action

  EqualityMaine

  Equality North Carolina

  Fair Wisconsin

  Faith in Public Life Action

  Feminist Majority PAC^[819]

  Freedom From Religion Foundation Action Fund

  Garden State Equality

  Harvey Milk LGBTQ Democratic Club

  Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus

  Human Rights Campaign

  Jews for Racial and Economic Justice

  Latino Victory

  League of United Latin American Citizens

  Lesbians Who Tech + Allies

  LGBTQ Victory Fund

  LPAC^[830]

  Make the Road Action

  National Center for Transgender Equality Action Fund

  National Immigration Law Center Immigrant Justice Fund

  National LGBTQ Task Force

  National Organization for Women PAC

  National Partnership for Women & Families Action Fund

  National Women's Law Center Action Fund

  National Women's Political Caucus

  Silver State Equality^[813]

  Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund

  Stonewall Democrats Utah

  UltraViolet Action

  UnidosUS Action Fund

  United We Dream PAC

·         Voto Latino

·        Everytown for Gun Safety

·        Brady PAC

·        Center for Biological Diversity

·        Chesapeake Climate Action Network

·        Clean Air Moms Action

·        Clean Water Action

·        Climate Hawks Vote

·        Earthjustice Action

·        Environmental Defense Fund Action Votes

·        Food & Water Action

·        Friends of the Earth Action

·        Jane Fonda Climate PAC

·        League of Conservation Voters

·        Natural Resources Defense Council

·        Protect Our Winters Action Fund

·        Sierra Club

·        43 Alumni for America

·        All Pueblo Council of Governors

·        Alliance for Retired Americans

·        Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority PAC

·        America Votes

·        American Bridge 21st Century

·        Americans for Democratic Action

·        BlackPAC

·        Bend the Arc

·        Catholic Democrats

·        Center for Free Thought Equality PAC

·        Center for Popular Democracy Action Fund

·        Community Change Action

·        Courage California

·        Delta for Women in Action

·        The Democratic Coalition

·        Democrats for Education Reform

·        Emerge America

·        End Citizens United

·        Future Coalition

·        Gen-Z for Change

·        Haley Voters for Harris

·        Indivisible Action

·        Jewish Democratic Council of America

·        Leadership Now Project

·        The Lincoln Project

·        MoveOn

·        National Association of Social Workers PAC

·        National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare

·        NewDem Action Fund

·        NextGen America PAC

·        People for the American Way

·        People's Action

·        PODER PAC

·        Population Connection

·        Priorities USA Action

·        Progressive Change Campaign Committee

·        Republican Accountability Project

·        Stand Up America

·        Swing Left

·        Third Way

·        Social Security Works PAC

·        Vote Common Good

·        Voters of Tomorrow

·        VoteRunLead Action

·        VoteVets.org

·        WelcomePAC

·        White Dudes for Harris

·        Emily's List

·        Planned Parenthood Action Fund

·        Reproductive Freedom for All

·        Actors' Equity Association

·        AFL-CIO

o   Arizona AFL-CIO

o   Connecticut AFL-CIO

o   Kentucky AFL-CIO

o   Maine AFL-CIO

o   Massachusetts AFL-CIO

o   Nevada AFL-CIO

o   New Jersey AFL-CIO

o   New York State AFL-CIO

§  New York City Central Labor Council

o   Oregon AFL–CIO

o   Pennsylvania AFL–CIO

o   Washington State Labor Council

§  King County Labor Council

o   Wisconsin AFL-CIO

·        Amalgamated Transit Union

o   Amalgamated Transit Union Local 689

·        American Federation of Government Employees

o   AFGE Council 238

·        American Federation of School Administrators

·        American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees

o   AFSCME Council 31

o   District Council 37

·        American Federation of Musicians

o   AFM Local 802

·        American Federation of Teachers

o   AFT of Maryland

o   AFT of Massachusetts

o   Chicago Teachers Union

o   Ohio Federation of Teachers

o   United Federation of Teachers New York City, New York

·        American Guild of Musical Artists

·        American Postal Workers Union

·        American Train Dispatchers Association

·        Asian Pacific American Labor Alliance

·        Association of Flight Attendants

·        California School Employees Association

·        Coalition of Black Trade Unionists

·        Communication Workers of America

·        Culinary Workers Union

·        International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees

·        International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers

·        International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers

·        International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers

And more celebrities, activists, and sports personalities than there is space to name.

But this is neck and neck…?

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